Binary trading options usa19 comments
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Less overall risk, but less theta as well. More and more contracts being taken off as the weeks go on. Decent recovery in those 15 days. I keep removing trades every day as I go, lessening risk and on other days, I am slowly raising the UEL. I also have some BSH hedges to protect this thing as I go forward.
I will probably half the risk in another 10 days and so on. I do have some short puts in there that are around the , and strikes which I am getting off as well. They were for the BSH factory start and I sold them on super high vol days. I nearly took half off yesterday on the bounce.
After what was a very rough period from Feb 2 to about last week, I am starting to recover and regain my ambition and motivation. I had a rough go with IB margin rules during Volmageddon Feb. During what was one of the biggest vol spikes and thee biggest change in volatility VVIX the option pricing sky rocketed across the board, and when summed up vastly exceeded 30x. This summation technique would put the account in violation of the rule.
This gave me problems for when I had to roll or remove hedges. They also used some bizarre calculations that would restrict even further. This left me in a very precarious position where the complexity of removing hedges and positions was very difficult. I hope that maybe I can get to full recovery by May or June. I will also be moving my base trade towards HS3 type trades, STTs in higher vol down moves and John Locke style trades M3, X4v17 and some BB as a booster and to bring back some diversification in my trade plan.
I still like ATM type trades. Anyone that traded MICs, would know just how bad those did during Aug 24 I liked trading those things M3. I eventually switched to Rhinos and did modestly with them but I hate the upside exposure on runaway markets. No wonder I was frustrated with those. I am in Canada now visiting the office and some family and friends. I will be back again for the Montreal Party Poker tournament and probably touring Europe again this summer. The STTs for Jun 29 are now approaching break even.
Not bad when the market is in the exact same spot as Monday. VIX was telling us that demand for protection was increasing as the market moved up. Traders were protecting themselves. On Monday, the market fell and we had a spike to That day, the market was hovering around SPY About the same place it was the week before. If you see a large spike, expect a temporary draw down, likewise, even if the market continues down, if the spike subsides, expect your STTs to regain in value.
This type of thing is most pronounced with a move from a low vol environment to a higher vol environment and it will affect newer STTs more than developed STTs. Yesterday they were only down about a unit. Totally normal following a large spike with brand new STTs. Again, time kinda cures all of this. Those vix spikes are great times to enter more. Now we let this move play out and adjust as we need I usually add condors weight to the direction I need to hedge.
I will at times add debit spreads as well. It was a long 4 or so years but we finally got the house built. What a run in the markets. Historic on all levels. The RSI is at historic levels. I am just glad I never got caught in the run with a neutral or negative UEL upper expiration line this time around. A lesson learned from the last 18 months.
I used to be a professional gambler finding exploits in casino games both online and to a lesser degree off and was v. My mindset in exploiting edges carried over to the markets and it never paid off. Probably more of a function of timing and extremes in market conditions than it was on poor analysis. For the last 18 months, records and extremes have been a normality. Using previous market mechanics to game that system would be impossible.
That happened in October and did affect my December trade, the market screamed through and went up enormous amounts. I managed to get my PDS off but at a pretty shitty price. That was the big one. My big mistake of the year. Cost some of the profits. What are the others? The market kept going up and the STT would struggle to reach target. They mostly never came. I learned from that, and now follow a no-bias approach. I set my UEL positive and I adjust based on price action and risk profile.
Now I have no stress or worry about a never ending bull market. I am letting them run with this while I go back to the basics. I finally have moved into my new house and have an awesome office to work out of.
This year has been a long year of experimenting and pushing the boundaries of complex option trading. I have come to realize that a good strategy has a triangle of requirements that need to be fulfilled to be a valid scalable trade. Namely, it has to satisfy 1 margin and margin expansion requirements 2 Slippage, fills and real life initiations of the trade 3 Good backtest results. Pre , backtests were generally good enough because everything was standard and because of this, generally, if it backtested well it would do well enough live.
We used standard width PCS and PDS and combos therein, and generally putting those on were quite easy and can be done without much directional risks. Not a big deal. Time was wasted from Sept-Nov. Then we had some red days and I licked my chops ready to get trades on, unfortunately, it was met with disappointment. The non-standard widths in the credit spreads were very very difficult to fill.
It was too exotic. However, in a fast moving market these things move quickly. So there in lied the rub. IF you got filled on the long puts, there was no guarantee you could get filled on the PCS. Leaving you incredibly exposed. If you got filled on the PCS, it meant that the market was moving against your longs the makers apparently called them STUPIDS and you will pay a really bad price for the longs as they become high in demand.
Filling this trade in size was a nightmare. So some people had ideas about using ratios. I gave it a shot the next red day.
Again, I had mega issues getting fills on this. It just was untenable. But I did manage to get on about units of this trade through a lot of pain. The backtests were great, it was the trade of all trades.. This made the trade almost untenable from a margin perspective.
Gross use of capital. So not only did I have a nightmare fill situation but I had a nightmare margin situation. Lessons learned and 3 months of opportunity potentially wasted. And again, this year was a year of exploring every nuance of complex option trading and it ended my year at best break-even. But the year was the most successful year in growth as a trader and I feel there is not that many more stones to turn. I am actively trading STTs and variants of BSh factories and the last 1 month of doing this has produced great result.
Now on to formalizing this as a base trade and putting capital to work with what is proven to work and not into nuanced complexities. I think we had a 14 day bull run there with no opportunity to finance, this is extremely abnormal. Not a great start. The STTs obviously as they always do, did great. The PMTT group seems to like it as well.
The tests were insane.